In Defense of Pennsylvania Democrats

A response to the Florida Squeeze and Voting Trend

In recent days there has been a fair degree of criticism of the state of the Presidential campaign and Democratic Party in the state of Pennsylvania by the likes of Dave Trotter of Voting Trend and Kartik Krishnaiyer of the Florida Squeeze. While I don’t necessarily disagree with the criticisms and concerns particularly that of the declining share of Democrats as a share of voter registration in PA I do think there is an alternative narrative of the state of Democratic Party politics in PA that should be shared. That is that the health of the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania is in fact in the best shape it has been in in decades and PA is NOT on the verge of becoming the next Florida or Ohio.

First, let’s look back at the historical record. Notwithstanding the large advantage in voter registration Democrats have normally had in PA and the fact at the Presidential level Democrats have won the state in every election since 1992, with the exception of 2016, Pennsylvania has gone through long periods of Republican dominance in years past. After 1994 Republicans controlled the governorship, both US Senate seats (one held by Rick Santorum), both houses of the state legislature, and a majority of US House seats. This is on top of the fact prior to 1992 Republicans held control of the State Senate as well and held both US Senate Seats until Senator John Heinz(remember him died in aircraft accidents) in addition to voting for Ronald Reagan twice and George Bush over Michael Dukakis. So put it this way there is a deep Republican voting tradition in Pennsylvania regardless of voter registration. Relative to Florida in fact I would argue that during Lawton Chiles second term from 1994 to 1998 Florida was more a Democratic state than Pennsylvania.

So how does Pennsylvania get from there to today? Well notwithstanding again the continued decline in voter registration for Dems Ed Rendall, the former mayor of Philadelphia who had previously unsuccessfully fought Bob Casey, Sr for the Democratic nomination as governor is nominated and becomes governor in 2002 in what by every account was a bad year for Democrats. Democrats then in 2006 with Bob Casey Jr as their nominee for Senate successfully win Rick Santorum’s US Senate seat and reclaim control of the State Assembly for the first time since 1994. Later after Barack Obama’s victory as President Arlen Spector switches parties and becomes a Democrat.

Then in 2010 just like 1994 the Democrats basically give this all up again only holding Bob Casey’s Senate seat in 2012 and facing a Republican trifecta in Harrisburg. However, in 2014 I would argue Democrats do start building towards today’s party even with Trump winning the state in 2016. Mark Wolf with Jon Fetterman as his Lt. Governor is elected in 2014. Then in 2018 Bob Casey, Jr is re-elected and Democrats pick up several US House seats giving them a majority of the delegation for the first time in years. In 2020 Joe Biden wins the state and in 2022 Democrats win the governorship for a third consecutive (the first time in generations basically), have both US Senate seats held by elected Democrats for the first in generations basically, and take control of the State Assembly. Perhaps most importantly Democrats come within 3 seats of taking control of the State Senate in the next election(Only half of PA State Senate seats are up for election every cycle) and having a Democratic trifecta for the first time since 1992 and in my opinion a Democratic trifecta that is likely to be more long lasting than that previous one.

So why do I think this is important? Well, if you believe the goal of a political party like the Democrats is to win elections at all levels of government and to enact Democratic party policies by winning those elections NOT just getting people to register to vote for who then go off and vote for the other team I for have to say the Pennsylvania Democrats are moving into prime position to be a successful political party. This doesn’t mean Pennsylvania Democrats are going to win a trifecta this year or that PA Dems could win a trifecta while at the same time Trump wins the state (although I consider this later possibility unlikely). I guess my overall argument would be compared to say the Florida Democratic Party or even the Ohio Democratic Party the PA Democratic Party is on the right track.

Finally, I do have to take issue with Dave’s contention that Josh Shapiro is a corporatist shill. I think Tim Walz is and was a far better choice for VP than Shapiro including the fact that Shapiro is only halfway through his first term, and I could easily imagine voter blowback for him leaving PA so quickly. However, if Josh Shapiro was a corporatist shill, he would be more like Andrew Cuomo who active tried to undermine Democratic control of the legislature whereas Shapiro is fighting like mad to try get control of both houses of the PA legislature for the first time in over 30 years.